Analysis sees market value topping ₦230 trillion

LAGOS, Nigeria — The Nigerian Exchange is entering a period of record market capitalisation, supported by strong liquidity and capital inflows ahead of the expected public listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, according to a market analysis published on Wednesday, November 11, 2026.

The All-Share Index is trading near its previous historical peak of about 255,000 points. The analysis says total market capitalisation could reach new highs, potentially exceeding ₦230 trillion, once the refinery’s shares are listed on the Exchange’s boards, with a December listing expected.

The refinery’s offer has drawn strong demand. Applications for its shares have reportedly reached an estimated ₦5.85 trillion, or about $4.1 billion, nearly three times the initial subscription target. The public subscription period has been extended.

The analysis says the listing would significantly change the weightings of the All-Share Index, given the size of the offer. It names institutional investors, domestic pension funds and international frontier-market funds, including South Africa’s Public Investment Corporation, among those interested in the offer, and expects buying pressure on the first day of trading. Investors’ decisions after listing will also affect supply, the analysis says.

The analysis links the outlook to macroeconomic conditions. It cites external reserves near multi-year highs and a stable foreign exchange market, which it says reduce the risk of currency shocks for listed companies, particularly import-dependent businesses. It also points to high international oil prices, which it says are strengthening external buffers and increasing federal government revenue, and supporting banking-sector liquidity through oil and gas trade finance.

The analysis says nine-month results from major companies show earnings holding up despite rising prices and interest rates. It cites MTN Nigeria’s double-digit profit growth, and notes that oil and gas stocks have outperformed the broader market in the high-price environment.

The analysis also points to risks. It describes the All-Share Index as having elevated valuations and says technical indicators suggest the market is currently overbought. It says continued institutional buying provides support at current levels. It also reports that Dangote Cement has dropped plans for a secondary listing in London and will keep its market capitalisation on the Nigerian Exchange, a decision the analysis says would keep local investors’ access to the company’s earnings intact.

The analysis expects equities to finish the year higher, but the outlook is a projection and depends on the refinery listing going ahead as scheduled, the market’s technical position and continued stability in the naira and oil prices.