LAGOS, Nigeria — The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has warned that rising energy inflation could reverse Nigeria’s recent disinflation gains, even though headline inflation eased to 14.63% in September 2026.
The policy think tank made the warning in a brief on the September 2026 inflation report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It called for measures to strengthen domestic energy resilience and cut production and distribution costs.
Energy inflation accelerates in September
According to the CPPE, monthly energy inflation accelerated to 5.38% in September from 0.36% in August, an increase of 5.02 percentage points. Year-on-year energy inflation stood at 10.85%.
The organisation described the jump as one of the most significant warning signals in the report, noting that energy is a critical input across almost every sector. Higher petrol, diesel and gas prices raise transportation, distribution and production costs, with possible knock-on effects on food prices and core inflation.
It linked the pressure to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have heightened volatility in global petroleum markets. Exchange-rate stability can help moderate imported inflation, the CPPE said, but it cannot fully offset rising international energy costs.
The brief said the policy priority should be to strengthen domestic energy resilience through reliable electricity supply, expanded CNG infrastructure, greater adoption of electric mobility and improved domestic refining efficiency.
Headline inflation falls to 14.63%
The CPPE welcomed the decline in headline inflation to 14.63% from 15.39% in August, a drop of 76 basis points. It said the moderation supports macroeconomic stability and improves prospects for investment, monetary easing and economic recovery.
Annual core inflation eased to 12.95% from 13.29%, while monthly headline inflation fell to 0.06% from 0.71%. Monthly food inflation turned negative at 1.55%. The CPPE attributed part of the improvement to relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
Kanyi Daily reports that the CPPE also flagged a rise in monthly core inflation to 1.11% from negative 0.06%. It said this suggests underlying price pressures have not been fully contained, and that falling inflation does not mean the cost of doing business is falling while energy and logistics costs remain elevated.
CPPE backs further rate cuts as energy inflation risks build
The organisation said moderating inflation strengthens the case for further monetary easing, given the high cost of credit facing manufacturing, agriculture, construction, distributive trade and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). It urged policymakers to stay measured, balancing lower borrowing costs against inflation expectations, exchange-rate conditions and emerging energy-price risks.
To sustain disinflation, the CPPE recommended:
- prudent monetary easing while safeguarding foreign exchange stability and inflation expectations
- food affordability measures targeting insecurity, agricultural productivity constraints, post-harvest losses and distribution costs
- accelerated electricity-sector reforms, expanded CNG and alternative energy infrastructure, and more competitive domestic petroleum markets
Energy inflation trend in 2026
Energy inflation began the year at 11.17% in January and peaked at 12.90% in February, its highest reading in the first nine months. It fell to 9.90% in March and 4.60% in April, then rose to 5.73% in May and 9.90% in June.
The rate dropped to 4.40% in July, its lowest reading of the period, and edged up to 4.69% in August. It then more than doubled to 10.85% in September.
