LAGOS, Nigeria — Oil prices extended their steepest weekly decline since April 2020 on Monday, November 9, 2026, with Brent crude falling towards $97 per barrel after losing more than 16% last week. West Texas Intermediate crude traded at around $91 per barrel.
The fall reflects hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between the United States and Iran, which had disrupted energy exports from the Persian Gulf. Prices have retreated from a six-month high recorded at the end of October. Expectations of lower tensions followed the Democratic sweep of the United States midterm elections, which raised hopes that the conflict would not escalate further.
Signals from Washington remain mixed. Secretary of State Marco Rubio played down expectations of a breakthrough in negotiations with Iran, describing Tehran’s demands as unacceptable and, in some cases, “outrageous and ridiculous.” President Donald Trump has taken a more conciliatory tone, and reports said he considered further military strikes on Iran highly unlikely if negotiations made substantial progress. Traders are weighing whether diplomacy can deliver a lasting resolution.
Security risks in the region remain elevated. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile over the weekend while travelling outbound through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping corridors. Separately, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels damaged offices of Saudi Aramco in Riyadh, and Saudi forces subsequently destroyed two missile launchers.
Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said the Democratic victory does not necessarily make a diplomatic breakthrough more likely. “More pressure for a deal doesn’t necessarily mean a deal is closer,” he said. He warned that renewed escalation could quickly reverse much of last week’s decline.
Crude exports from the Persian Gulf have recovered to near pre-war levels despite continued attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. A survey of producers found that output from members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose last month to 88% of the volume recorded in February. Iranian production has fallen since a United States naval blockade was imposed.
Vivek Dhar, a commodities analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the removal of the blockade could trigger further declines. He said Brent could fall to between $70 and $85 per barrel if a deal led to the lifting of the blockade. The global benchmark still carries a risk premium reflecting the possibility of renewed military confrontation.
Ukraine struck a sixth Russian oil refinery within a week, intensifying its campaign against energy infrastructure that helps finance Moscow’s war. Russia is preparing to send a high-level delegation to United States-mediated talks with Ukraine in Abu Dhabi from Tuesday.
Market participants will watch this week’s monthly oil market reports. The United States Energy Information Administration publishes its report on Tuesday, followed by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Wednesday and the International Energy Agency on Friday.
