LAGOS, Nigeria — Lagos could lose its position as Sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city to Angola’s capital, Luanda, by 2050, according to a World Bank report, as Luanda’s population grows significantly faster over the next 25 years.
The report, titled “Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation,” projects that Luanda’s population will rise by 78%, from 11.4 million in 2025 to 20.3 million in 2050. Lagos is projected to grow from 12.8 million in 2025 to 16.2 million by 2050, an increase of more than 25%.
Luanda is expected to add 8.9 million people over the period, more than twice the 3.4 million Lagos is projected to add.
The report says that over this period, Luanda will overtake Lagos as the region’s most populous city. It adds that Lagos will continue to grow substantially despite the change in ranking.
The projections are based on calculations by the World Bank and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, using data from Schiavina and colleagues (2025).
The projections come as Sub-Saharan Africa continues to urbanise rapidly, increasing the need for governments to provide infrastructure, housing, transport and jobs. The report estimates that the region’s urban population grew from 170.2 million in 1975 to 912.6 million in 2025. Over the same period, the number of people living in cities rose from 64 million to 502.9 million.
The World Bank warns that population growth alone does not guarantee stronger economic performance. Cities must create enough jobs or raise labour productivity to sustain living standards as their populations expand. The report says a doubling of the urban population requires a doubling of either urban employment or labour productivity over the same period just to keep urban gross domestic product per person constant, which it describes as a daunting task.
The region added more than 181 million urban residents between 2014 and 2024, while real gross domestic product per person stayed at about $4,370. The report estimates that Sub-Saharan Africa needs roughly 15 million new jobs a year to keep pace with its growing young workforce.
Lagos State has been updating its 2050 mobility master plan, shifting its transport strategy towards rail, bus rapid transit and ferry services to ease congestion. The state’s transport authority says Lagos records more than 20 million trips a day. In October 2026, the state also unveiled a development plan targeting an economy worth nearly $1 trillion by 2052, with 447 initiatives across 21 sectors, including infrastructure, governance, human capital and economic development.
