LAGOS, Nigeria — Petrol prices in Lagos could reach ₦1,411 per litre in November if current freight, insurance and other import-related premiums remain unchanged, an energy analyst has projected.
Kelvin Emmanuel, Managing Partner of The Energy Consulting Practice, said the projection reflects the rising cost of delivering physical cargoes, which has pushed prices above the levels implied by futures contracts. He said insurance premiums, freight charges and the dated Brent spread are the main drivers. Together, he said, they have made physical cargo deliveries about $30 more expensive than futures contracts.
Emmanuel set out his estimate for November deliveries. He put the crude delivery cost at $145.60 and added $1.21 in levies and tariffs from the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency and the Nigerian Ports Authority, for a landing cost of $146.81 a metric tonne. After an $80 refinery premium, he applied an exchange-rate factor of 1,400 to 1,351 to reach an estimated ex-gate refinery price of about ₦1,376 per litre. Adding ₦35 per litre for trucking and related charges gives a projected Lagos price of about ₦1,411 per litre.
He said the projection would hold only if the relevant premiums stayed at their current levels for November deliveries. He also said Dangote Petroleum Refinery prices its products against import parity, because it sources about 40% of its feedstock internationally.
Emmanuel argued that prices commonly quoted online could be about 30% lower than the actual cost of landing physical cargoes, whether through imports or domestic crude allocations. He also pointed to the Platts pricing system and commercial refineries as major influences on petrol prices.
Some marketers dispute the forecast. Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, described reports of a possible increase as speculative. He said crude oil prices had not risen further, and that marketers were not considering an increase. He noted that petrol was already selling for around ₦1,400 per litre in some parts of the country.
Joseph Obele, National Publicity Secretary of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, also doubted a further increase, saying the Middle East conflict appeared to be easing and crude prices were falling. Isa Alheri, an independent marketer, said prices could still rise above ₦1,400 per litre, depending on the exchange rate, international crude prices, refined product prices, import financing costs, freight and insurance.
Ukadike linked the price outlook to import policy. He said imported petrol was priced about 20% above Dangote Refinery’s prices and opposed what he called the indiscriminate issuance of import licences. He also urged the Federal Government to address price volatility and the sale of petroleum products in United States dollars.
In July 2026, oil marketers had accused major importers of pricing imported petrol at about ₦1,350 per litre, above the price offered by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
